Although the DTIC may or may not use these sites as additional distribution channels for Department of Defense information, it does not exercise editorial control over all of the information that you may find at these locations. Such hyperlinks are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this website Doctor of Medicine (abbreviated M.D., from the Latin Medicinae Doctor) is a medical degree, the meaning of which varies between different blogger.com the United States, and some other countries, the M.D. denotes a professional graduate blogger.com generally arose because many in 18th-century medical professions trained in Scotland, which used the M.D. degree nomenclature Jan 31, · Data Science is the field of exploring, manipulating, and analyzing data, and using data to answer questions or make recommendations. As Data Science is not a discipline traditionally taught at universities, contemporary data scientists come from diverse backgrounds such as engineering, statistics, and physics. Quiz
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First, I have to say that forecasting Tesla's performance for the next two years today, is much harder than it was 2 years ago when I first started trading options.
Two years ago, the accuracy of financial forecasts were mostly a factor of how accurately one could predict the ramps of Giga Shanghai and Model Y. There wasn't all that much uncertainty involved in this, because we knew Tesla would be ramping the exact same product in Shanghai as it already had in Fremont, so we knew Tesla should in all likelihood be able to do it at least as fast as the disastrous initial Fremont Model 3 ramp.
Things today aren't quite as simple as that. Predicting the next two years accurately mostly master thesis exercise science vertical jump on accurately forecasting the Giga Berlin and Giga Austin ramps. There are numerous uncertainties associated with these ramps over the next two years:. Now that we're all warmed up, let's discuss the much more interesting and exciting part of TSLA.
Let's talk about TSLA's long-term potential. The rest of this blog post is divided into three sections. In this first section, we'll be looking at all of Tesla's current and future lines of business, researching their potential, and discussing how much of that potential Tesla is likely to live up to. We'll then wrap this section up by comparing all these LoBs lines of business and deciding which ones are the most exciting for investors, and which ones are relatively uninteresting opportunities, master thesis exercise science vertical jump.
In the next section we'll use everything from this section to create two financial models, which I will then use in the final section to talk about what TSLA is worth to me today. In that final section, master thesis exercise science vertical jump, I will also talk about my personal future portfolio management and divestment decisions.
Although this section covers the potential of Tesla's various LoBs, master thesis exercise science vertical jump, there will be less focus on the chance of success of these LoBs. For one because you can simply refer to My Tesla Investment Thesis 1 and My Tesla Investment Thesis 2where I already talked in-depth about a lot of Tesla's businesses, and also because one of the things that has changed over the past months is the market's perception of Tesla.
It is now common knowledge that Tesla is the leader in EVs and that the incumbents are the ones that need to catch up. I still don't think the market's perception of Tesla is perfect. The market still appears to underestimate Tesla's rate of growth, how massive of an advantage Tesla's vertical integration is, and how hard it is for anyone to compete with Tesla when road transportation moves from personal vehicle ownership to AMaaS Autonomous Mobility as a Serviceamong other things.
But nonetheless the market's perception of Tesla is vastly different from what it was in latewhich brings a lot of advantages with it, such as most suppliers now undoubtedly being ecstatic at a chance to work with Tesla. Lastly, before we get started. Here are links to the model I've created and talk about throughout this entire section, as well as the first part of the third section of this blog:.
Tesla Potential Model - PDF. Tesla Potential Model - Numbers. Tesla Potential Model - Excel. The two main reasons for that are risk and opportunity cost. Let's start with risk. Now we're finally ready for this. I'll start this off by listing the most important variables that go into these decisions:.
thank you, a very long detailed read. any thoughts on neuralink effects on stock price? I don't see any obvious synergies between Neuralink and Tesla today, so I don't think it'll affect Tesla's stock price. Too good to miss. thanks for views backed by data and scientific thoughts Then it becomes easier to sit and watch TSLA grow.
It's an interesting thought. I hadn't really considered annuities. I have some reservations and feel like I could put my money to better use myself, but it's interesting nonetheless. Fantastic read, that you very much for this extremely detailed thesis, including the spreadsheets. I must say, that you really excel in putting all the pieces together and offered a broad and very detailed view on Tesla.
Some thoughts from my side: I would assume a lower market share for the AMaaS bear case, as regulatory measurers, especially in relation to China might stop Tesla. I don't think it is likely, that the Chinese government will let TSLA dominate the majority of their transportation system.
Thank you for those kind words! You may be right. I'm not an expert on China and its government. Would be interesting to pick somebody's brain who's an expert on that, master thesis exercise science vertical jump. Sounds like a solid plan! Thank you! Although I'm doing an MBA, which is a Master's degree, so it's technically not a PhD. Thanks Frank; I'm curious, do you see Tesla potentially paying out dividends itself at any point? I'd thought it may be a way for Elon to exercise his shares to fund his Mars aspirations without divesting any stock.
So it could definitely afford to pay a large dividend then. I don't think this is likely to happen before though. Pays 3. It looks like you are calculating your returns in dollars, but I strongly believe you should calculate call option trades in of shares. And the stock is of course much lower risk. Generally I don't love bull spreads, because master thesis exercise science vertical jump can be hard to sell before expiration at a good profit.
But different people have different goals, so I'm not saying they can't be a good fit for others. Thanks for taking the time to write such a detailed and helpful explanation!
Thanks master thesis exercise science vertical jump for all your thorough work! Excellent work!! Again, I learned so much from it! What do you think about Tesla's investment in cryptocoins? I have a feeling that Tesla will keep profit in cryptocoins to avoid dividends or extra tax.
Another thought is, I feel that Elon Musk is always preparing for "the end of the world". If that's true, as a long term investor, would it be better to hold Tesla shares than any other shares? I'm glad to hear that. I don't think Tesla's investment in BTC has any material impact on the company or stock. It's less than 0. I don't feel that Elon is always preparing for "the end of the world", I think he just takes the actions most likely to lead to a better future for humanity.
But I do master thesis exercise science vertical jump that TSLA is a better investment than master thesis exercise science vertical jump other stock out there :. One thing for sure: from "the end of the world" point of view, residential solar roof makes much more sense than utility scale solar farm.
One question. Master thesis exercise science vertical jump biggest company today, Apple, has 2. As a Tesla bull, I don't think it's realistic, unless some crazy situation happens like hyperinflation or something like that. GDP is the annual gross domestic product of the US Market Cap is the value of all future master thesis exercise science vertical jump earnings of a worldwide operating company.
Why would you compare these two unrelated metrics? All the points I listed there explain why it is not crazy. Biggest reason are the margins, but please re-read that section to get the whole picture.
I do not think it's unrealistic. And "Unknown" is also right that comparing GDP to Market Cap is not a good comparison. Amazing read! Thanks for you effort. I basically share all your analyses, but assume Tesla Bot might be to work what robotaxis will be for transportation - but orders of magnitude bigger.
Which brings me to the question: Do you see a SpaceX IPO in the foreseeable future and would you shift parts of your portfolio to it? I've had a few chances to invest in SpaceX already, but I passed. The structures of the deals were also quite bad, but even looking past that I didn't want to shift money from TSLA to SpaceX. Sure, once humanity is a space-fairing civilization, the company with the best rocket technology will be HUGE, but this is a very very very long-term thing. If I knew I'd live to years old, I'd definitely invest in SpaceX, but even for me SpaceX is too long-term of an investment.
For the foreseeable future, I think Starlink is going to be the biggest money maker, but because SpaceX's valuation is already very high, I believe Tesla is the better investment right now.
I haven't researched SpaceX anywhere close to as deeply as I have Tesla though, and I more about Tesla's industries, so I could be missing things, master thesis exercise science vertical jump.
Post a Comment. My Tesla Investment Thesis 3: The Complete TSLA Investing Guide. Get link Facebook Twitter Pinterest Email Other Apps. September 05, Introduction Quite some time has passed since my last blog post, master thesis exercise science vertical jump. Part of the reason for this is the fact that I've been busy with my MBA program. Currently I just finished my summer break, which is why I have had enough spare time to finish the massive project that this post has turned out to be.
However, the other master thesis exercise science vertical jump as to why a lot of time has passed since my last post has to do with the nature of my posts, master thesis exercise science vertical jump. Just about everything I've written in this blog has flown forth from research and thoughts that came naturally as a Tesla investor, and mid to the end of was quite a special period in that regard.
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Although the DTIC may or may not use these sites as additional distribution channels for Department of Defense information, it does not exercise editorial control over all of the information that you may find at these locations. Such hyperlinks are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this website Doctor of Medicine (abbreviated M.D., from the Latin Medicinae Doctor) is a medical degree, the meaning of which varies between different blogger.com the United States, and some other countries, the M.D. denotes a professional graduate blogger.com generally arose because many in 18th-century medical professions trained in Scotland, which used the M.D. degree nomenclature We value excellent academic writing and strive to provide outstanding essay writing service each and every time you place an order. We write essays, research papers, term papers, course works, reviews, theses and more, so our primary mission is to help you succeed academically
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